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The Great Pandemic of 2020 - A Utah Perspective
Utah's infection rate continued to decline. The 7-day average dropped from 457 to 422.
Questions that Need Answers
  • Why has it been so difficult for the United States to do broad-based testing. South Korea was successful in limiting the spread by doing braod-based testing. We supported their security for over 50 years. If asked they would have shared their success with us.
  • Why has there been so little international cooperation on defeating this virus?
  • Other than high population density why has New York/New Jersey been so poor in controlling the spread in those states?
  • How many lives were lost due to the lack of cooperation among Americans at practicing social distancing?
Tracking the COVID-19 Pandemic
Data is aggregated from Johns Hopkins University into Table Format for Presentation
Computations used here:
  • Infection rate = total people infected / population
  • Death rate = total died / total infected
Basic Facts

DISCLAIMER: While I am not an epidemiologist I do love what you can learn from statistics.

  • Formal Virus Name: SARS-Cov-2 - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - Corona Virus #2
  • Common Virus Name: Novel (New) Corona Virus now spelled Coronavirus
  • Disease caused by the Novel Corona Virus: COVID-19
  • First Appeared: Wuhan China - December 2019
  • Everyone is going to get it. FALSE! The country with the highest infection level is Italy and the total number of cases there is 0.07% (as of March 20) and 0.22% (as of April 7). Spain now has the highest infection percentage at 0.22% as of April7.
  • Most outrageous statement by any U.S. Politician: Governor Newsom of California said 56% of his state would be infected. That would be about 22 million people. Three weeks after his statement, the state has 0.01% of its citizens infected I can promise you that will not happen. So far California is a shining example to the nation with a 0.04% infection rate (April 7).
  • The U.S. will know before April 5th if our actions to limit the spread have worked or not. Until then keep doing your part to limit the spread. The quick ramp at this point DOES NOT MEAN our efforts are failing. So April 5 was a bit early to see infection rates role over. As of April 8 we are still waiting for conclusive evidence.
  • On April 7 Dr. anthony Fauci, the leading epidimeologist for the U.S. government has complemented Utah effort at social distancing,even though our infection rate is at 0.06%, somewhat above California's rate.
  • Based on the data I am seeing, this virus does not like HOT weather! Examples: Neither Hong Kong nor Thailand, Taiwan, or Arizona have suffered an explosion in cases
  • I was surprised to learn that the United States has the third highest population of all countries on earth behind China 1.4 billion and India 1.3 billion.
May 15, 2020 : Bulletin : Moving to weekly statistical updates
From here forward this web site will update once per week. While South America and India are still ramping higher much of the rest of the world is quite or quieting down. Most states in the U.S. have a new infection count that has rolled over. Notable exceptions are California, Illinois, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, and Wyoming.

After 8 weeks of quarantine, it seems like many are simply throwing their hands in the air and saying, enough is enough people need to get back to work. We "hope" that can be done wisely without a second wave showing up.

By looking at much of Asia you can clearly see better days are ahead. Furhter hotter temperatures in the Northern hemisphere will reduce (but not eliminate) transmissions of SARS-Cov-2.

For sure there will be periodic outbreaks. Maybe we can snuff out many of those events. What happens in the fall? Some say SARS-Cov-2 comes back with a vengeance, while others point to the fact that its cousin viruses did not do that. Time will tell.

I do believe by fall there will be other successful treatments for Covid-19 beyond Remdesivir. Several companies are already in clinical trials on humans with vaccines, many of them fell confident that they have a successful vaccine in their hands. It would be remarkable if we had a vaccine, but early 2021 does not seem out of the realm of possibility.

April 13, 2020 : Bulletin
The Coronavirus Outbreak has peaked in parts of the U.S. and will likely soon peak in other areas.
Tuesday March 31, 2020 - Bulletin : Statements from the United States COVID-19 Taskforce
The White House announced Tuesday the effects of COVID-19 on the country may be grim — expecting roughly 100,000 to 240,000 deaths before the pandemic is over. In Utah, experts are predicting the virus won’t peak until near the end of April.

The government always quotes the "worst-case" models, hoping that will "scare" the people into abiding by "Stay Home - Stay Safe". Perhaps that is the best policy, though it is not fully honest. 

Starting on April 7, 2020, various groups started "refining" their predictions, for example the modelers at the University of Washington "new" model predicted just 2,000 deaths in Utah, a dramatic reduction from more than 10,000. This is why I have been screaming the these worst case models far overshoot what is really going to happen. I'll even say right now that Utah will not hit 2,000 (period end of silly modeling).

Most Recent Week
August 9, 2020
  • It is now clear the pandemic is not going away until a vaccine is available and widely distributed
  • In Asia where we thought it might be over, new outbreaks are happening in Vietnam (small), Hong Kong, and Japan. The Philippines erupted this week to over 7,000 new cases. Japan rocketed to a new weekly record of 2,608 infections/day, while India added 109,000.
  • In Europe, France is hot again with over 1,000 new cases/day while Spain had over 3,500 new cases per day. Sweden has settled down with only 270 new cases per day. Greece has its worst week with 1,036 new cases (almost 25% of their total count.
  • The U.S. continues to rock the meter with an average of over 60,000 new cases per day, even while places like California, Texas, Florida and overs were a bit better.
  • New hotspots in the U.S. appear to be Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, South Carolina, and Louisiana, Oklahoma
  • More than 50% of U.S. states now have an infection rate of more than 1%. States over 2% include Louisiana, Florida, Georgia, New Jersey, New York, Arizona, Mississippi, with Louisiana headed for 3% in a few weeks.
  • Utah 0.76% still trails Alaska 0.70% for the best death rate in the country.
  • The highest death rates are all in New England (New York, New Jersey, Massachusettes, Connecticut and New Hampshire. Michigan also belongs in this group.
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected 7 days Per Day % of population Infected Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died 7-days % of Infected Dead
ASIA                    
China 1,433,783,686 88,791 86,637 2,154 308 0.01% 4,686 4,652 34 5.28%
India 1,366,417,754 2,153,010 1,385,685 767,325 109,618 0.16% 43379 32063 11316 2.01%
Japan 126,860,301 48,775 30,519 18,256 2,608 0.04% 1047 998 49 2.15%
Philippenes 108,116,615 129,913 80,448 49,465 7,066 0.12% 2270 1932 338 1.75%
Viet Nam 96,462,106 841 420 421 60 0.00% 11 0 11 1.31%
Thailand 69,625,582 3,351 3,291 60 9 0.00% 58 58 0 1.73%
S. Korea 51,225,308 14,366 14,150 216 31 0.03% 301 298 3 2.10%
Taiwan 23,773,876 477 458 19 3 0.00% 7 7 0 1.47%
Hong Kong 7,436,154 4,079 2,761 1,318 188 0.05% 18 18 0 0.44%
                     
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected Week Per Day % of population Infected Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week % of Infected Dead
EUROPE                    
Germany 83,517,045 217,288 211,086 6,202 886 0.26% 9,202 9,154 48 4.23%
U.K. 67,530,172 312,555 305,572 6,983 998 0.46% 46,659 46,287 372 14.93%
France 65,129,728 235,237 225,198 10,039 1,434 0.36% 30,327 30,268 59 12.89%
Italy 60,550,075 250,566 247,832 2,734 391 0.41% 35,205 35,146 59 14.05%
Spain 46,692,858 314,362 288,522 25,840 3,691 0.67% 28,503 28,445 58 9.07%
Greece 10,473,455 5,623 4,587 1,036 148 0.05% 211 206 5 3.75%
Sweden 10,036,379 82,323 80,432 1,891 270 0.82% 5763 5743 20 7.00%
                     
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected Week Per Day % of population Infected Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week % of Infected Dead
AMERICAS                    
U.S.A 329,064,917 5,044,435 4,620,502 423,933 60,562 1.53% 162,919 146,831 16,088 3.23%
Argentina 44,780,677 246,499 196,543 49,956 7,137 0.55% 4606 3596 1,010 1.87%
Canada 37,411,047 121,362 118,523 2,839 406 0.32% 9028 8986 42 7.44%
Brazil 212,559,417 3,035,422 2,707,877 327,545 46,792 1.43% 101049 93563 7,486 3.33%
                     
OTHER                    
Iran 82,913,906 326,712 306,752 19,960 2,851 0.39% 18,427 16,982 1,445 5.64%
Australia 25,203,198 21,397 17,895 3,502 500 0.08% 313 208 105 1.46%
New Zeland 4,886,000 1,569 1,565 4 1 0.03% 22 22 0 1.40%
Country Population Infected Total Infected Prior Week Infected Week Per Day % of population Infected Dead Total Dead Prior Week Died Week % of Infected Dead
U.S. States                    
California 39,512,223 559,711 508,447 51,264 7,323 1.42% 10,377 9,365 1,012 1.85%
Texas 28,995,881 503,211 444,738 58,473 8,353 1.74% 9140 6865 2,275 1.82%
Florida 21,477,737 532,806 487,132 45,674 6,525 2.48% 9,140 7,084 2,056 1.72%
New York 19,453,561 420,860 416,298 4,562 652 2.16% 32,774 32,710 64 7.79%
Pennsylvania 12,801,989 123,312 118,033 5,279 754 0.96% 7,311 7,223 88 5.93%
Illinois 12,671,821 195,380 183,211 12,169 1,738 1.54% 7,845 7,713 132 4.02%
Ohio 11,689,100 100,848 93,031 7,817 1,117 0.86% 3,669 3,529 140 3.64%
Georgia 10,617,423 216,596 193,177 23,419 3,346 2.04% 4,199 3,840 359 1.94%
North Carolina 10,488,084 136,346 125,330 11,016 1,574 1.30% 2,192 1,983 209 1.61%
Michigan 9,986,857 96,726 91,758 4,968 710 0.97% 6,519 6,457 62 6.74%
New Jersey 8,882,190 184,773 182,350 2,423 346 2.08% 15,874 15,836 38 8.59%
Virginia 8,535,519 100,086 91,782 8,304 1,186 1.17% 2,326 2,218 108 2.32%
Washington 7,614,893 63,072 57,541 5,531 790 0.83% 1688 1592 96 2.68%
Arizona 7,278,717 186,923 178,467 8,456 1,208 2.57% 4150 3765 385 2.22%
Massachusetts 6,949,503 121,040 118,458 2,582 369 1.74% 8,735 8,638 97 7.22%
Tennessee 6,833,174 122,712 109,627 13,085 1,869 1.80% 1,223 1,073 150 1.00%
Indiana 6,733,174 74,328 67,852 6,476 925 1.10% 3,041 2,974 67 4.09%
Missouri 6,137,428 59383 52142 7,241 1,034 0.97% 1334 1276 58 2.25%
Maryland 6,045,680 95,503 90,274 5,229 747 1.58% 3,585 3,515 70 3.75%
Wisconsin 5,822,434 60,554 54,924 5,630 804 1.04% 998 948 50 1.65%
Colorado 5,758,736 50,642 47,249 3,393 485 0.88% 1858 1844 14 3.67%
Minnesota 5,639,632 60898 55947 4,951 707 1.08% 1698 1654 44 2.79%
South Carolina 5,148,714 100,435 91,788 8,647 1,235 1.95% 2031 1777 254 2.02%
Alabama 4,903,185 101,334 91,444 9,890 1,413 1.86% 1768 1627 141 1.78%
Louisiana 4,648,794 131,399 119,740 11,659 1,666 2.83% 4,263 4,006 257 3.24%
Kentucky 4,467,794 34,982 31,185 3,797 542 0.78% 773 742 31 2.21%
Oregon 4,217,737 21272 18817 2,455 351 0.50% 356 325 31 1.67%
Oklahoma 3,956,971 43,566 38,225 5,341 763 1.10% 603 550 53 1.38%
Connecticut 3,565,287 50,320 48,776 1,544 221 1.41% 4441 4413 28 8.83%
Iowa 3,155,070 48844 45560 3,284 469 1.55% 931 876 55 1.91%
Utah 3,205,958 44,127 41,175 2,952 422 1.38% 336 311 25 0.76%
Nevada 3,080,156 56230 50205 6,025 861 1.83% 957 832 125 1.70%
Arkansas 3,017,825 49383 43173 6,210 887 1.64% 544 458 86 1.10%
Mississippi 2,976,149 67173 60553 6,620 946 2.26% 1896 1703 193 2.82%
Kansas 2,913,314 30662 27392 3,270 467 1.05% 380 358 22 1.24%
New Mexico 2,096,829 22,315 20,796 1,519 217 1.06% 685 651 34 3.07%
Nebraska 1,934,408 28432 26391 2,041 292 1.47% 345 322 23 1.21%
West Virginia 1,792,147 7695 6858 837 120 0.43% 139 117 22 1.81%
Idaho 1,787,147 24,497 21,110 3,387 484 1.37% 235 197 38 0.96%
Hawaii 1,415,872 3498 2197 1,301 186 0.25% 31 26 5 0.89%
New Hampshire 1,359,711 6818 6613 205 29 0.50% 419 416 3 6.15%
Maine 1,344,212 4044 3958 86 12 0.30% 125 123 2 3.09%
Montana 1,068,778 4952 4193 759 108 0.46% 75 61 14 1.51%
Rhode Island 1,059,361 19738 19022 716 102 1.86% 1014 1007 7 5.14%
Delaware 973,764 15575 14949 626 89 1.60% 591 585 6 3.79%
South Dakota 884,659 9605 8955 650 93 1.09% 146 135 11 1.52%
North Dakota 762,062 7596 6660 936 134 1.00% 1112 105 1,007 14.64%
Alaska 731,545 3711 3280 431 62 0.51% 26 24 2 0.70%
Vermont 623,989 1459 1426 33 5 0.23% 58 57 1 3.98%
Wyoming 578,759 3050 2808 242 35 0.53% 26 26 0 0.85%
Prior Data - Select from the list below