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The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic - A Utah Perspective
Report for January 2022
See the index to all available reports.
Publication Note:
January 2022 update on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The data is all from January 3, 2022 as as sourced from Johns Hopkins University. Starting with this report the state populations were updated to the values from the official 2020 U.S. census.

Also see weekly data for Utah starting January 14: Weekly data for Utah.

The weekly seven day average of new cases of Covid-19 in Utah.
The weekly seven day average of Covid-19 deaths in Utah.
Most Recent Month
***SARS-Cov-2 - Pandemic or Endemic***
*** Focus on Utah ***

Omicron has already hit Europe hard, but so far Asia seems to not have the variant in large numbers.

In Europe during the last 28 days the number of new infections has been huge. Here is a sample

Country Cases Percentage
U.K. 2,786,335 4.1%
France 2,334,363 3.6%
Spain 1,091,870 2.3%
Greece 244,632 2.3%

Vietnam is an exception in Asia as the case counts there are very high with the 28-day count jumping by 453,948 cases. Taiwan has done a terrific job avoiding the spread. Their latest 28-day count was just 418. Japan had only 6000 new cases in the last 28 days.

*** Focus on the United States ****

Meanwhile in the United States all efforts to contain the spread of the virus seem futile. The U.S. had 6,002,352 cases in the last 4 weeks. That's almost 2% of the population. This brings the infection rate in the U.S. to 16.8%. The U.K. is worse at 19.7%, but they are further through their Omicron surge than we are. The infection rate in Canada is only 6%. The response of the U.S. government to the SARS-CoV-2 is simply abysmal, it makes us look like a 3rd world country. Ok, yes, you could argue that we have the most accurate numbers, nevertheless the U.S. response is poor.

The five states with the highest infection rates (full pandemic)

State Percentage
North Dakota 22.4%
Alaska 21.8%
Rhode Island 21.1%
Tennessee 20.4%
Wyoming 20.2%

The five states with the lowest infection rates (full pandemic)

State Percentage
Hawaii 8.3%
Oregon 29.9%
Vermont 10.5%
Maine 10.8%
Washington 11.0%

Over the last 28 days the states with the most growth of infections are (compares the prior 28 days to the most recent 28 days)

State Percentage
Florida 1080%
Hawaii 935%
Georgia 514%%
New Jersey 459%
Maryland 425%

The best results for the most recent 28 days:

State Percentage
Montana -50%
Wyoming -23%
Alaska -23%
North Dakota -20%
Utah -15%

These are states where the Omicron variant has not yet made a difference, but certainly will in the coming weeks.

As the Omicron variant takes hold and makes many people sick, the overall death rate should drop as there will be larger numbers infected resulting few deaths per new case. I see this happening now in states where Omicron is raging.

As of this report the states with the lowest death rate (full pandemic) are

State Percentage
Utah 0.59%
Alaska 0.61%
Vermont 0.71%
Hawaii 0.90%
Nebraska 0.97%

States with the worst death rates

State Percentage
Mississippi 1.86%
Nevada 1.83%
Alabama 1.80%
Connecticut 1.80%
Massachusetts 1.78%
*** Focus on Utah ***
When I heard the report that the Missionary Training Center in Provo had 91 cases of Covid-19, my first thought was Omicron had arrived! The next few weeks will be brutal in terms of case counts, while a large number of those cases will be so mild that they won't even be reported. When the surge in Utah ends (I expecting near the end of January), we and many other places should be near herd immunity, ushering in six months with little SARS-CoV2 activity. That said, the immunity to this virus is unlikely to be permanent and we start the next wave in the fall of 2022. That wave however probably won't be too big assuming people stay current with their vaccinations.
The Data for the week ending January 3, 2021 - Table renders properly with Edge Browser
Country 2010 Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods  
ASIA                                
China 1,433,783,686 115,409 0.01% 3708 0.00% 1493 2,215 148.4% 4,849 4.20% 15 0.40% 0 15 0.0%  
India 1,366,417,754 34,922,882 2.56% 287982 0.02% 268831 19,151 7.1% 481,893 1.38% 8,356 2.90% 9,739 -1,383 -14.2%  
Japan 126,860,301 1,733,228 1.37% 6000 0.00% 3600 2,400 66.7% 18,392 1.06% 31 0.52% 54 -23 -42.6%  
Philippines 108,116,615 2,855,819 2.64% 17156 0.02% 33673 -16,517 -49.1% 51,586 1.81% 2,184 12.73% 4,991 -2,807 -56.2%  
Viet Nam 96,462,106 1,778,976 1.84% 453948 0.47% 333740 120,208 36.0% 33,021 1.86% 6,571 1.45% 3,591 2,980 83.0%  
Thailand 69,625,582 2,232,485 3.21% 84317 0.12% 176498 -92,181 -52.2% 21,738 0.97% 754 0.89% 1,306 -552 -42.3%  
S. Korea 51,225,308 642,207 1.25% 164849 0.32% 93099 71,750 77.1% 5,730 0.89% 1,837 1.11% 885 952 107.6%  
Taiwan 23,773,876 17,095 0.07% 418 0.00% 151 267 176.8% 850 4.97% 2 0.48% 1 1 100.0%  
Hong Kong NA                              
Country Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods  
EUROPE                                
Russia 145,961,031 10,374,292 7.11% 727,803 0.50% 984,750 -256,947 -26.1% 305,096 2.94% 28,460 3.91% 33,553 -5,093 -15.2%  
Germany 83,517,045 7,218,920 8.64% 1,007,853 1.21% 1,398,317 -390,464 -27.9% 112,291 1.56% 9,037 0.90% 6,514 2,523 38.7%  
U.K. 67,530,172 13,309,761 19.71% 2,786,335 4.13% 1,162,883 1,623,452 139.6% 149,324 1.12% 3,269 0.12% 3,827 -558 -14.6%  
France 65,129,728 10,355,369 15.90% 2,334,363 3.58% 668,018 1,666,345 249.4% 124,930 1.21% 4,414 0.19% 1,634 2,780 170.1%  
Italy 60,550,075 6,328,076 10.45% 1,218,994 2.01% 291,847 927,147 317.7% 137,786 2.18% 3,451 0.28% 1,787 1,664 93.1% DEATHS DROPPED 50%
Spain 46,692,858 6,294,745 13.48% 1,091,870 2.34% 177,319 914,551 515.8% 89,405 1.42% 1,246 0.11% 655 591 90.2%  
Greece 10,473,455 1,210,853 11.56% 244,632 2.34% 105,142 139,490 132.7% 20,790 1.72% 2,195 0.90% 2,273 -78 -3.4%  
Sweden 10,036,379 1,314,784 13.10% 102,639 1.02% 35,051 67,588 192.8% 15,310 1.16% 140 0.14% 113 27 23.9%  
Country Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods  
AMERICAS                                
U.S.A 329,064,917 55,240,407 16.79% 6,002,352 1.82% 788,205 5,214,147 661.5% 826,120 1.50% 36,036 0.60% 32,769 3,267 10.0%  
Canada 37,411,047 2,229,089 5.96% 413,323 1.10% 76,052 337,271 443.5% 30,401 1.36% 580 0.14% 627 -47 -7.5%  
Brazil 212,559,417 22,297,427 10.49% 150,349 0.07% 263,923 -113,574 -43.0% 619,401 2.78% 3,501 2.33% 6,182 -2,681 -43.4%  
                                 
Middle East                                
Iran 82,913,906 6,198,590 7.48% 62,448 0.08% 151,096 -88,648 -58.7% 131,702 2.12% 1,480 2.37% 2,951 -1,471 -49.8%  
Turkey 83,809,754 9,554,771 11.40% 651,684 0.78% 667,385 -15,701 -2.4% 82,635 0.86% 4,805 0.74% 5,718 -913 -16.0%  
                                 
Other                                
Australia 25,203,198 499,958 1.98% 273,442 1.08% 37,522 235,920 628.8% 2,266 0.45% 210 0.08% 235 25 10.6%  
                                 
UNITED STATES                                
State 2010 Population Total Infected Count Overall Infection Rate Infected last 28 days Infection Rate last 28 days Infected Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods Total Deaths Overall Death Rate Deaths Last 28 Days Death Rate Last 28 days Deaths Prior 28 Days Change 28 day Periods % Change 28 day Periods  
New Jersey 9,288,994 1,644,829 17.71% 369,122 3.97% 62,689 306,433 489% 29,073 1.77% 608 0.16% 372 236 63.4%  
New York 20,201,249 3,684,152 18.24% 774,117 3.83% 184,259 589,858 320% 59,760 1.62% 1,925 0.25% 1,033 892 86.4%  
Delaware 989,948 189,382 19.13% 32,928 3.33% 10,310 22,618 219% 2,286 1.21% 92 0.28% 75 17 22.7%  
Rhode Island 1,097,379 231,096 21.06% 34,147 3.11% 13,779 20,368 148% 3,066 1.33% 118 0.35% 60 58 96.7%  
Massachusetts 7,029,917 1,140,614 16.23% 204,770 2.91% 74,364 130,406 175% 20,273 1.78% 784 0.38% 402 382 95.0%  
Ohio 11,799,448 2,072,663 17.57% 322,718 2.74% 157,835 164,883 104% 29,447 1.42% 1,092 0.34% 661 431 65.2%  
New Hampshire 1,377,529 203,749 14.79% 36,137 2.62% 26,250 9,887 38% 1,973 0.97% 240 0.66% 142 98 69.0%  
Illinois 12,812,508 2,238,750 17.47% 314,472 2.45% 122,090 192,382 158% 30,431 1.36% 1,286 0.41% 587 699 119.1%  
Maryland 6,045,680 751,450 12.43% 143,554 2.37% 27,324 116,230 425% 11,896 1.58% 615 0.43% 290 325 112.1%  
Connecticut 3,605,944 510,188 14.15% 84,913 2.35% 20,306 64,607 318% 9,160 1.80% 235 0.28% 135 100 74.1%  
Hawaii 1,455,271 121,864 8.37% 33,479 2.30% 3,236 30,243 935% 1,094 0.90% 61 0.18% 82 -21 -25.6%  
Pennsylvania 13,002,700 2,101,019 16.16% 298,073 2.29% 166,507 131,566 79% 36,799 1.75% 2,813 0.94% 1,962 851 43.4%  
Vermont 643,077 67,226 10.45% 14,095 2.19% 10,287 3,808 37% 480 0.71% 63 0.45% 32 31 96.9%  
Florida 21,538,187 3,741,058 17.37% 468,869 2.18% 39,748 429,121 1080% 65,504 1.75% 803 0.17% 1,367 -564 -41.3%  
Wisconsin 5,893,718 1,132,356 19.21% 122,975 2.09% 98,041 24,934 25% 11,185 0.99% 1,039 0.84% 592 447 75.5%  
West Virginia 1,793,716 337,326 18.81% 35,977 2.01% 22,694 13,283 59% 5,356 1.59% 366 1.02% 444 -78 -17.6%  
Kansas 2,937,880 535,014 18.21% 56,401 1.92% 34,167 22,234 65% 7,049 1.32% 302 0.54% 236 66 28.0%  
Michigan 10,077,331 1,710,325 16.97% 193,000 1.92% 207,670 -14,670 -7% 29,020 1.70% 2,912 1.51% 2,133 779 36.5%  
Indiana 6,785,528 1,246,854 18.38% 128,519 1.89% 82,276 46,243 56% 19,037 1.53% 1,325 1.03% 814 511 62.8%  
Maine 1,362,359 148,217 10.88% 23,619 1.73% 15,346 8,273 54% 1,556 1.05% 195 0.83% 129 66 51.2%  
Minnesota 5,706,494 1,028,986 18.03% 95,281 1.67% 111,923 -16,642 -15% 10,704 1.04% 916 0.96% 788 128 16.2%  
Virginia 8,631,393 1,158,764 13.42% 141,919 1.64% 43,057 98,862 230% 15,015 1.30% 834 0.59% 628 206 32.8%  
Georgia 10,711,908 1,839,879 17.18% 171,004 1.60% 27,839 143,165 514% 31,443 1.71% 788 0.46% 1,172 -384 -32.8%  
Colorado 5,773,714 929,275 16.09% 90,688 1.57% 78,134 12,554 16% 10,271 1.11% 927 1.02% 937 -10 -1.1%  
New Mexico 2,117,522 357,480 16.88% 33,169 1.57% 37,778 -4,609 -12% 5,866 1.64% 447 1.35% 294 153 52.0%  
Missouri 6,137,428 1,021,433 16.64% 92,929 1.51% 57,888 35,041 61% 16,235 1.59% 667 0.72% 2,859 -2,192 -76.7%  
Nebraska 1,961,504 344,392 17.56% 28,379 1.45% 24,653 3,726 15% 3,338 0.97% 158 0.56% 179 -21 -11.7%  
Arizona 7,151,502 1,390,409 19.44% 98,355 1.38% 22,593 75,762 335% 24,355 1.75% 1,766 1.80% 1,153 613 53.2%  
North Carolina 10,439,388 1,732,568 16.60% 142,123 1.36% 54,891 87,232 159% 19,457 1.12% 601 0.42% 574 27 4.7%  
North Dakota 779,094 175,100 22.47% 10,289 1.32% 12,895 -2,606 -20% 2,057 1.17% 103 1.00% 126 -23 -18.3%  
Arkansas 3,011,524 572,822 19.02% 39,466 1.31% 16,994 22,472 132% 9,196 1.61% 457 1.16% 238 219 92.0%  
Tennessee 6,910,840 1,412,302 20.44% 89,080 1.29% 36,509 52,571 144% 20,842 1.48% 3,452 3.88% 890 2,562 287.9%  
Kentucky 4,505,836 856,145 19.00% 57,794 1.28% 43,831 13,963 32% 12,118 1.42% 892 1.54% 1,152 -260 -22.6%  
Iowa 3,190,369 575,501 18.04% 40,878 1.28% 40,216 662 2% 7,858 1.37% 413 1.01% 376 37 9.8%  
South Dakota 886,667 179,100 20.20% 11,220 1.27% 11,276 -56 0% 2,494 1.39% 123 1.10% 90 33 36.7%  
Alabama 5,024,279 913,603 18.18% 61,043 1.21% 12,397 48,646 392% 16,455 1.80% 270 0.44% 351 -81 -23.1%  
Louisiana 4,657,757 859,856 18.46% 55,906 1.20% 10,940 44,966 411% 15,001 1.74% 160 0.29% 211 -51 -24.2%  
California 39,538,223 5,584,889 14.13% 435,015 1.10% 147,126 287,889 196% 76,534 1.37% 1,721 0.40% 2,289 -568 -24.8%  
Utah 3,271,616 636,992 19.47% 35,040 1.07% 41,384 -6,344 -15% 3,787 0.59% 223 0.64% 278 -55 -19.8%  
South Carolina 5,118,425 975,320 19.06% 53,598 1.05% 19,393 34,205 176% 14,636 1.50% 364 0.68% 431 -67 -15.5%  
Alaska 733,391 160,089 21.83% 7,552 1.03% 9,866 -2,314 -23% 979 0.61% 96 1.27% 142 -46 -32.4%  
Oklahoma 3,956,971 716,851 18.12% 38,518 0.97% 22,211 16,307 73% 12,503 1.74% 420 1.09% 1,120 -700 -62.5%  
Mississippi 2,961,279 561,262 18.95% 28,233 0.95% 8,948 19,285 216% 10,455 1.86% 154 0.55% 148 6 4.1%  
Washington 7,708,281 849,075 11.02% 68,240 0.89% 43,137 25,103 58% 9,853 1.16% 440 0.64% 615 -175 -28.5%  
Texas 29,145,605 4,592,209 15.76% 236,266 0.81% 91,272 144,994 159% 75,757 1.65% 1,546 0.65% 2,255 -709 -31.4%  
Nevada 3,104,614 459,957 14.82% 24,684 0.80% 16,316 8,368 51% 8,419 1.83% 350 1.42% 357 -7 -2.0% Adjusted Deaths Down
Wyoming 576,851 116,643 20.22% 4,444 0.77% 6,494 -2,050 -32% 1,526 1.31% 98 2.21% 185 -87 -47.0%  
Oregon 4,237,256 421,263 9.94% 26,694 0.63% 22,432 4,262 19% 5,655 1.34% 412 1.54% 681 -269 -39.5%  
Idaho 1,839,106 320,802 17.44% 11,488 0.62% 12,570 -1,082 -9% 4,169 1.30% 192 1.67% 324 -132 -40.7%  
Montana 1,084,225 198,520 18.31% 5,930 0.55% 11,784 -5,854 -50% 2,908 1.46% 140 2.36% 334 -194 -58.1%  
Weekly SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Update for Utah
January 14 ,2021

The easy transmissibility of the Omicron variant clearly showed up in this week's data.

The number of new cases on January 3, 2022, was 14,754 (which included cases from December 30 - January 2 which were holidays). The number of new cases for January 14, 2022, was 11,128.

From the 7-day moving average chart below you can see the consistent upward track of new cases (averaged over the prior 7 days).

I believe the upward trend will continue for at least 10 more days and perhaps 15 more days before we begin to see a significant downtrend. Once the downtrend begins it should be as steep as the ascent has been.

Fortunately, this variant does not cause as much illness as the prior variants. A large number of cases is making it difficult just to find tests, while it makes contract tracing useless.

In two of my children's families, there have been some cases, starting just before Christmas. The first grandson afflicted was probably a case of the delta variant. As the two families discussed their experiences this week, it was found the younger sibling of the first one infected had also had Covid-19 (verified by an antigen test), but his only complaint was his knees ached every night. So far most have had insignificant symptoms of the disease

Before this Omicron surge is over, I think the 7-day moving average of new infections could double from here. But after this surge, we should be approaching herd immunity at which point we may have several months of calm.

The data for the week ending 10-Dec-2021 shows a real decrease in new cases. The total for the week was just 8,729, the lowest since August 27, 2021. This clearly means we avoided much spread during the Thanksgiving holiday. Utah's full vaccination rate is still a poor 61%. Cases in Utah Public schools stand at 26,669 which reflects a smaller increase than prior weeks. This is good news.

January 21 ,2021
After all the cases from the holiday weekend were added in, Utah hit its all-time record high for the 7-day moving average of new SARS-CoV-2 infections at 12,450. That average has since fallen to around 10,500 cases per day. As the graph shows, we may be in a new plateauing phase here in Utah. I do think that within two weeks we'll start to see a true decrease in case counts.

Shame on the legislature of the state of Utah for throwing out the mask mandate in Salt Lake and Summit counties at such a critical juncture in the fight against Omicron. The mandate had just over two weeks left and yet they felt the need to ignore those educated in Public Health issues and prove to the world that they know better. Apparently, the house leadership did not want to bring the bill to the floor but their colleagues finally demanded the chance to vote. So at about 11:30 this morning, the folly was done. My house representative voted against terminating the mandate. Thanks, Steve.

The death rate in Utah has again climbed to an average of eleven per day, which is near the top of its historic highs.

Dr. Scott Gotleib, former head of the FDA said the reported number of cases is far below the true number. He thinks the true number is probably 3-5 times the reported rate. He also noted that the Los Angeles area infection rate has suddenly fallen, well before it has elsewhere in the United States. He says the LA area was hit with the first South African variant, and that gave a considerable number of residents immunity from Omicron.

Since the state of Utah has voided the mask mandate that was in effect in Salt Lake County, I won't be attending church in person for the rest of January 2022.